Abstract

Sustained high oil prices and improved production technologies have recently led to the development of shale gas. To predict estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) for a part of shale gas production well, both Arps' hyperbolic decline and Stretched Exponential Production Decline (SEPD) are used for carrying out decline curve analysis (DCA). To minimize the uncertainty in predicting the production of shale gas having a significant variation in the initial production behavior, Monte Carlo simulation is used to single-well analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is also used in combination with decline envelope for multiple-well analysis. The probabilistic results of both methods are analyzed.

Keywords:
reserves evaluation, probabilistic result, cumulative distribution function, production rate, shale gas, probability distribution, decline envelope, production forecasting, complex reservoir, hyperbolic decline
Subjects:
Well & Reservoir Surveillance and Monitoring, Formation Evaluation & Management, Reserves Evaluation, Unconventional and Complex Reservoirs, Production forecasting, Shale gas
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2014. International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers
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