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Keywords: probability
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Proceedings Papers
Probabilistic Assisted History Matching Approach for Production Prediction and Flow Assurance Assessment
Available to PurchaseG. G. Ribeiro, C. Vasconcelos Barreto, A. Andrade Alves, E. Hayashi, V. Girardi Silva, D. Braga, J. Trujillo, G. Bassani
Publisher: Offshore Technology Conference
Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 5–8, 2025
Paper Number: OTC-35922-MS
...-dimensional multiphase flow simulator using an Assisted History Matching framework. The proposed workflow begins with a global sensitivity analysis to identify the most influential parameters, followed by a Bayesian history matching to refine probability distributions, improving model calibration...
Proceedings Papers
Advanced Fluid Influx Detection in Drilling Wells Using Real-Time Data and Probabilistic Uncertainty Analysis
Available to PurchasePublisher: Offshore Technology Conference
Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 5–8, 2025
Paper Number: OTC-35785-MS
... events. A critical step in the process is uncertainty quantification, which estimates the probability of true fluid influx events by considering wellbore configurations, including sensor placements and flow rate of well fluids. This probabilistic approach refines the detection process, enabling more...
Proceedings Papers
Offshore Facility Evacuation – The North Sea's Transition
Available to PurchasePublisher: Offshore Technology Conference
Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 5–8, 2025
Paper Number: OTC-35810-MS
... loading and potential collapse of the facilities from extreme waves and currents. This approach resulted in personnel left on board when the probability of collapse was significantly higher than acceptable, while also evacuating the facility and causing production losses when the probability of collapse...
Proceedings Papers
Calibration of Weather Dependent Mooring Line Tension Safety Factors
Available to PurchasePublisher: Offshore Technology Conference
Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 5–8, 2025
Paper Number: OTC-35839-MS
... of these was similar for both unrestricted and restricted operations. The acceptance criterion was modeled as a target annual probability of exceeding the design tension, back calculated from the design standard for unrestricted operation. The objective of this paper is to study these simplifications from...
Proceedings Papers
Identification of Porous Systems in Complex Carbonates Using Artificial Intelligence
Available to PurchaseLuis Ahindel Castellanos Bassoult, Ricardo Alcantara, Arturo Perez Hernandez, Rafael Perez Vazquez, Adela Velasquez
Publisher: Offshore Technology Conference
Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 5–8, 2025
Paper Number: OTC-35513-MS
... subdiscipline classification porosity aspect ratio fracture pore porous system connectivity probability geometry pore system pore aspect ratio anisotropy vug algorithm prediction aspect ratio pore permeability coefficient Introduction Naturally fractured reservoirs (NFRs) present...
Proceedings Papers
New Technology for the Mooring Failure Detection on Floaters
Available to PurchasePublisher: Offshore Technology Conference
Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 5–8, 2025
Paper Number: OTC-35598-MS
... subsea system machine learning detection double line failure offshore technology conference replacement correction displacement false alarm algorithm performance standard operational response floater 1 requirement single line failure simulation floater 2 probability Introduction...
Proceedings Papers
Predicting Gas Lift Equipment Failure with Deep Learning Techniques
Available to PurchasePublisher: Offshore Technology Conference
Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 5–8, 2025
Paper Number: OTC-35605-MS
... advancement over traditional predictive maintenance methods. gas lift deep learning neural network artificial intelligence prediction machine learning artificial lift system ensemble framework random forest support vector machine probability equipment failure accuracy ensemble model...
Proceedings Papers
Live Sensor Based Risk Based Inspection Planning for Floating Offshore Structures
Available to PurchasePublisher: Offshore Technology Conference
Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 5–8, 2025
Paper Number: OTC-35609-MS
... algorithms for predictive maintenance. corrosion artificial intelligence subsea system floating production systems probability coating degradation degradation mechanism inspection interval target probability diminution inspection thickness diminution sensor data requirement rbi plan...
Proceedings Papers
Predicting Remaining Useful Life of Well Tubulars: A Reliability-Based Approach
Available to PurchaseL. P. Ribeiro Almeida, L. P. Gouveia, T. B. Silva, E. T. Lima Junior, J. P. Lima Santos, D. Colombo, V. de Melo Santanna, A. L. S. Abrego
Publisher: Offshore Technology Conference
Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 5–8, 2025
Paper Number: OTC-35661-MS
... in API/TR 5C3 code. The proposed framework is applied to tubular design and monitoring analyses, considering degradation effects due to corrosion and extreme scenarios, such as Worst Case Discharge (WCD). The proposed solution comprises a mechanical model to provide the safety factors and the probability...
Proceedings Papers
Probabilistic Lateral Buckle Formation for Three Deepwater HPHT Pipeline Mitigations
Available to PurchasePublisher: Offshore Technology Conference
Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 6–9, 2024
Paper Number: OTC-35080-MS
... force (CBF) and its probability density function for both engineered and rogue buckles based on deterministic and stochastic parameters via Monte-Carlo simulation and design of experiments (DOE); (2) Determination of the tolerable VAS by FE analyses for both engineered and rogue buckles to satisfy...
Proceedings Papers
Setting the Stage for a Novel Mooring Chain Integrity and Design Assessment Practice: The Partial SCF and Hot-Spot S-N Curve Approach
Available to PurchasePublisher: Offshore Technology Conference
Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 6–9, 2024
Paper Number: OTC-35373-MS
... remains a challenge. Incidents of premature mooring line failure has raised concerns on validity of mooring chain reliability in Industry Standards. This paper investigates the probability of failure of mooring chains based on available failure statistics, and its implication on current design and life...
Proceedings Papers
Floating Offshore Wind Subsea Balance of Plant Cost Savings Using a Risk Based Assessment Approach
Available to PurchasePublisher: Offshore Technology Conference
Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 6–9, 2024
Paper Number: OTC-35399-MS
... the probability of occurrence. Comparison is made to the cost delta for different inspection frequencies. Floating wind is a new industry with little reliability data available. However, O&G experience provides useful failure rate data that is used in this study. The risk based sampling approach considers...
Proceedings Papers
Well as a Service – Is it Possible to Produce with Safety, Reliability, and Cost Efficiency?
Available to PurchaseD. Colombo, F. C. C. Junior, I. I. Junior, L. M. de Almeida, M. V. Nóbrega, M. H. Pedrassa, R. S. Roman, A. A. Zanetti, E. S. Radespiel
Publisher: Offshore Technology Conference
Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 6–9, 2024
Paper Number: OTC-35202-MS
... modeling, their performance in the future will allow deep discussions about remaining useful life, life extension, abandonment and influence the industry in the qualification process for new technologies. wellbore integrity wellbore design artificial intelligence operation probability machine...
Proceedings Papers
Flexible Pipe Integrity Management Strategies Applied to Lifetime Extension and Revitalization of Deepwater Brownfields
Available to PurchaseW. C. Loureiro, A. G. Vaillant, B. N. Borges, C. D de Lemos, G. C. Campello, M. M. Capella da Fonseca, T. R. Schone
Publisher: Offshore Technology Conference
Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 6–9, 2024
Paper Number: OTC-35183-MS
... rupture probability database lifetime extension offshore technology conference flooding Introduction Offshore production in Campos Basin started as early as 1977, with the early production systems of Enchova field in 120 m of water depth, followed by Garoupa and Namorado fields (160 m water...
Proceedings Papers
Insights to Fault Displacement Hazard at an Offshore Windfarm Site
Available to PurchasePublisher: Offshore Technology Conference
Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 6–9, 2024
Paper Number: OTC-35203-MS
... the fault avoidance zones given by the known fault zoning practices. Therefore, the scope of this work is to compare the probability of exceedance of a maximum displacement supported by the Offshore Wind Farm (hereinafter OWT) anchoring system through available empirical relations. Results highlight...
Proceedings Papers
Integrity Management for Lifetime Extension of Offshore Structures
Available to PurchasePublisher: Offshore Technology Conference
Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 6–9, 2024
Paper Number: OTC-35231-MS
... and propagation phase as well as environmental effects. For corrosion assessment the corrosion propagation model and the related environmental effects must be well defined. Fatigue is probably the most important degradation factor addressed at the design stage for offshore structures. The structure needs...
Proceedings Papers
Site Investigation and Risk Evaluation Using the Spatial Environmental Assessment Toolkit
Available to PurchasePublisher: Offshore Technology Conference
Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 6–9, 2024
Paper Number: OTC-35225-MS
... for larval transport, an acoustics for acoustic injury and behavior effects, and a power for power generation analysis. The shear stress, velocity, and acoustics modules calculate a difference between a baseline (without ME) and with ME for a series of hydrodynamic probabilities. sustainability...
Proceedings Papers
Wandoo A – Reliability Methodology for Determination of Probability of Failure of a Braced Caisson Structure
Available to PurchasePublisher: Offshore Technology Conference
Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 6–9, 2024
Paper Number: OTC-35427-MS
... to the primary structural period. resistance crest elevation wandoo probability offshore technology conference cov deviation simulation assessment reliability methodology platform loading american petroleum institute determination structure Introduction The Wandoo A (WNA) fixed...
Proceedings Papers
Unique Reliability Based Method Applied in the Development of Hull Risk-Based Inspection Across a Floating Production Fleet
Available to PurchasePublisher: Offshore Technology Conference
Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 6–9, 2024
Paper Number: OTC-35507-MS
... calculation subsurface corrosion subsea system probability matrix coating category consequence marine structure offshore technology conference Introduction The development of asset specific Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) programs has many benefits in managing the integrity of the asset over...
Proceedings Papers
On The Probabilistic Assessment of Top-Hole Casing Design
Available to PurchasePublisher: Offshore Technology Conference
Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 6–9, 2024
Paper Number: OTC-35127-MS
... uncertainties associated with soil behavior and casing tubulars manufacturing. Typical load scenarios are addressed to estimate the probability of occurrence of different soil-casing system failure modes. Reliability-based techniques stand out as powerful solutions for structural analysis and design. This work...
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