The main goal of the reservoir modeling including heavy oil ones by means of any deterministic model is to predict their further development results. A similar problem is solved by decline curves. We propose a new system that combines both approaches. The developed model was called adaptive. The main advantage of the adaptive approach is the possibility to modify the mathematical apparatus of the model, depending on the uncertainty of geological and production data.

The volume of initial information to construct the adaptive model is comparable to the volume of initial information to construct any deterministic model. The structure of the adaptive model also suggests the presence of deterministic geological and hydrodynamic components. However, they are based on different principles than the deterministic models. The mathematical apparatus of adaptive modeling is based on the use of such approaches as a non-parametric statistics, fuzzy logic, numerical solution of differential equations, and intelligent algorithms.

On the basis of the developed approach, the adaptive geological and hydrodynamic models of the Permian - Carboniferous reservoir of the Usinsk field, which is the largest one according to its value of remaining recoverable reserves of heavy oil in the Timan-Pechora region of Russia were created. The main objective of reservoir simulation using the adaptive model is to determine which cells of the model obtained the produced oil and water, and where they remained less, and where the injected water or steam went. For the adaptive hydrodynamic models, the absolute values of reservoir parameters are not important; their diversity between neighboring cells is more significant.

A new approach to the construction of geological and hydrodynamic models of heavy oil reservoirs based on the principle of fully discrete simulation which can be used to solve the most of the known problems associated with the reservoir development and increase of oil recovery on such complex objects including the forecast of efficiency of work-over techniques measures (drilling of new wells, cycle steam stimulation, water shut-off works, etc.).

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