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Keywords: bayesian inference
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Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, June 13–15, 2023
Paper Number: URTEC-3856826-MS
... that incorporates variable BHP conditions into DCA models with Bayesian inference to improve the accuracy of production history-matches while quantifying the uncertainty of the model s parameters and its future production prediction. We present the application of this workflow for shale gas wells. This work uses...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, July 26–28, 2021
Paper Number: URTEC-2021-5676-MS
... words, the obtained sample of solutions might not accurately capture the posterior probability density function (PDF). Bayesian inference is a class of AHM methods that is based on Baye s theorem, which is a statistical rule that describes probability based on prior information. Some examples...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, July 26–28, 2021
Paper Number: URTEC-2021-5020-MS
... single-phase and scaled two-phase (oil and gas) solutions of the diffusivity equation. First, we perform Bayesian inference to generate probabilistic production forecasts for each model using a Bayesian workflow in which we assess the convergence of our Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, calibrate...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, July 20–22, 2020
Paper Number: URTEC-2020-1023-MS
... surveillance flow in porous media hydraulic fracturing reservoir simulation fluid modeling production monitoring bayesian inference shale gas complex reservoir history matching upstream oil & gas drillstem/well testing simulation model unconventional resource economics match point emulator...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, July 22–24, 2019
Paper Number: URTEC-2019-517-MS
... that quantifies the uncertainty of predicting the fracture geometry in the presence of geologic factors such as laminations. To apply Bayesian inference to the deterministic frac design models, the design parameters are linked to the Bayes theorem by assuming the prior distribution is the distribution of frac...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, July 23–25, 2018
Paper Number: URTEC-2902792-MS
... Reservoir Surveillance normal score transform geological modeling production monitoring Upstream Oil & Gas Reservoir Characterization Artificial Intelligence information geologic modeling production control Bayesian Inference spatial continuity production forecast quantile horizontal...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, July 23–25, 2018
Paper Number: URTEC-2902561-MS
... and studying complex fluid flow behavior such as well interference. machine learning Artificial Intelligence complex reservoir Simulation simulator subsurface uncertainty Bayesian Inference hydraulic fracturing fracture geometry concentration geomechanics simulation calibration Upstream Oil...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, July 23–25, 2018
Paper Number: URTEC-2902891-MS
... Drilling Bayesian Inference information trajectory design well planning drilling operation optimization Well position URTeC directional survey well path Wellbore Position Wolfcamp probability distribution geology horizontal well pilot well cloud Bayesian network interpretation formation...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, July 23–25, 2018
Paper Number: URTEC-2900625-MS
... the most probable model given the data, and we demonstrate the value of using this approach to consider multiple models in probabilistic DCA for unconventional plays. machine learning Artificial Intelligence production control Bayesian Inference Reservoir Surveillance complex reservoir...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, July 24–26, 2017
Paper Number: URTEC-2697318-MS
... control Bayesian Inference machine learning Artificial Intelligence Reservoir Surveillance accuracy prediction Midland Basin Upstream Oil & Gas well performance production data drilling operation production forecast allocation production monitoring algorithm public data Directional...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, July 24–26, 2017
Paper Number: URTEC-2652022-MS
... study, in which we apply the Bayesian inference algorithm to simultaneously invert for microseismic event locations, origin times, and velocities. The stableness of the simultaneous inversion is tested with a cross-validation and the accuracy of the locations is cross-verified with P-wave polarization...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, July 24–26, 2017
Paper Number: URTEC-2668390-MS
... Characterization Upstream Oil & Gas posterior machine learning hydraulic fracturing accuracy Bayesian Inference bayes theorem uncertain input parameter microseismic data probability input parameter assumption interpretation Location uncertainty likelihood velocity model probabilistic...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, August 1–3, 2016
Paper Number: URTEC-2448463-MS
... years, people still feel confusing about the causes of fracture bashing. Numerous working hypotheses have been proposed in order to explain the causes of such behavior; for example loss of fracture conductivity and fracture pressure interaction (Hamed et al. 2013). machine learning Bayesian...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, August 1–3, 2016
Paper Number: URTEC-2459399-MS
... the limitations of incomplete or imprecise data and offers a very accurate prediction of where failures may occur. machine learning Artificial Intelligence complex reservoir information Bayesian Inference unconventional resource economics Upstream Oil & Gas likelihood Bayesian network...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, August 1–3, 2016
Paper Number: URTEC-2429986-MS
... in porous media Artificial Intelligence Bayesian Inference machine learning optimization problem Fluid Dynamics conditional realization production data realization reservoir simulation uncertainty range relative permeability parameter algorithm oil rate Upstream Oil & Gas urtec 2429986...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, July 20–22, 2015
Paper Number: URTEC-2153641-MS
... waves in the Marcellus Shale. Head wave and direct arrivals were used instead of the conventional P-wave polarization to estimate microseismic event location. A Bayesian inference program was also developed for joint event location and velocity model calibration. Validation of the developed method...

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