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Keywords: production forecasting
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Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, June 17–19, 2024
Paper Number: URTEC-4044312-MS
... data is, given certain values of the parameters. In regression, this typically involves assumptions about the distribution of the residuals (e.g., normally distributed errors). For discrete production forecasts for oil and gas wells, the MLE is the estimate for the parameters in the Arps decline curve...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, June 17–19, 2024
Paper Number: URTEC-4044067-MS
... sources, such as well reports and communication documents. Machine learning models are employed for production forecasting based on historical data, geological characterization, and development strategies. This integrated workflow significantly improves the efficiency of numerous reservoirs engineering...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, June 17–19, 2024
Paper Number: URTEC-4044736-MS
.... By minimizing time spent building and troubleshooting ad-hoc analysis, this approach directs focus towards a more thorough understanding of production outcomes, which in turn, informs future type curve modeling and asset decision-making. production forecasting complex reservoir inflow performance...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, June 17–19, 2024
Paper Number: URTEC-4044746-MS
... value to young well production. geologist geology complex reservoir history artificial intelligence machine learning forecast production forecasting unconventional resource technology conference arp equation figure 1 basin delaware basin enhancing production forecasting accuracy...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, June 17–19, 2024
Paper Number: URTEC-4049496-MS
... nrmse production forecasting eur lstm unconventional reservoir eur prediction clastic rock rock type production control production monitoring prediction bakken deviation accuracy normalized root mean squared error distribution URTeC: 4049496 Statistical Analysis of Estimated Ultimate...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, June 17–19, 2024
Paper Number: URTEC-4044927-MS
... introduces statistical bias. This work proposes a parametric approach to the construction of TWPs. In doing so, the method obviates the need for subjective interpretation of averages of time-rate profiles and the biases inherent to that approach. First, it is required to create production forecasts...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, June 17–19, 2024
Paper Number: URTEC-4048995-MS
... optimization, facility design, and investment planning. EUR forecasting also influences production schedules and resource allocation, maximizing economic returns. geology drilling operation geologist directional drilling eur machine learning technology conference production forecasting complex...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, June 17–19, 2024
Paper Number: URTEC-4044817-MS
.... These key parameters were used to set up the RTA model for history matching and production forecast. By applying the in-house fracture conductivity calculation workflow and the measured pressure response, the calibrated fracture model results show that conductive fractures are aligned with the fracture...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, June 17–19, 2024
Paper Number: URTEC-4055265-MS
... Abstract Production forecasting is crucial for field development. Machine Learning models have shown the potential to overcome limitations of conventional methods like Numerical simulations, reduced-order modeling, and decline curve analysis. This paper presents a newly developed machine...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, June 17–19, 2024
Paper Number: URTEC-4037004-MS
... the decreasing number of new wells unaffected by parent influences and the increasing total parent depletion amount each year. production forecasting configuration depletion complex reservoir machine learning scenario magnitude artificial intelligence urtec delayed secondary bench development...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, June 17–19, 2024
Paper Number: URTEC-4029346-MS
... rock clastic rock complex reservoir hydraulic fracturing modeling & simulation production control drillstem/well testing drillstem testing production forecasting basin mudstone fluid dynamics structural geology rock type flow in porous media production monitoring geological...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, June 17–19, 2024
Paper Number: URTEC-4043501-MS
... in these methods. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for variable pressure effects in unconventional wells for accurate: production forecasting, NPV calculations, and optimization of fracture clusters and total number of fractures. The major contribution of this work is the implementation...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, June 17–19, 2024
Paper Number: URTEC-4033921-MS
... assumptions. This study aims to develop reservoir models blending data-driven insights and physics-based constraints, utilizing routine data (rates and pressures) for pressure-aware production forecasting. We propose a novel approach for identifying rate-pressure relationships in unconventional reservoirs...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, June 17–19, 2024
Paper Number: URTEC-4024058-MS
... heterogeneity clarkson production control arrangement 1 deviation experiment hydraulic fracture flow-regime signature permeability heterogeneity orthogonal rtapk experiment production forecasting core analysis plug orthogonal mbag URTeC: 4024058 Use of the RTAPK Core Analysis Method to Evaluate...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, June 17–19, 2024
Paper Number: URTEC-4043379-MS
... conference complex reservoir production forecasting proceedings seg unconventional resource technology conference rock type urtec doi geologist mudrock artificial intelligence transition lee regime transition unconventional reservoir usa probabilistic eur forecasting tlf URTeC: 4043379...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, June 17–19, 2024
Paper Number: URTEC-4036239-MS
... the initial 3 years of production. We generated forecasts for all 2022+ wells using both TC and ML approaches for comparison. ML models maintain or improve predictive accuracy of production forecasts over the TC methodology. This study also analyzes the differences in standard TC Area definition versus a ML...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, June 17–19, 2024
Paper Number: URTEC-4043583-MS
... Abstract This paper focuses on the application of a novel Generative AI (GPT) model for early-stage oil and gas production forecasting. The primary objective is to demonstrate the model's ability to provide accurate production estimates with minimal historical data, a challenge that has...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Unconventional Resources Technology Conference, June 17–19, 2024
Paper Number: URTEC-4044552-MS
... values, and outliers. Additionally, each production forecasting method can represent a degree of ambiguity due to assumptions, limitations, and approximations. Reducing the uncertainty in production forecasts requires exploring different techniques with a range of outcomes. This paper will showcase...

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