A Bayesian Framework for Addressing the Uncertainty in Production Forecasts of Tight Oil Reservoirs Using a Physics-Based Two-Phase Flow Model

Extrapolation of history matched single-phase flow solutions is a common practice to forecast production from tight oil reservoirs. Nonetheless, this approach: a) omits multiphase flow effects that exist below bubble point conditions, and b) has not included the quantification of the uncertainty of the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR). This work combines a new two-phase (oil and gas) flow solution within a Bayesian framework to address the uncertainty in the EUR. We illustrate the application of the procedure to wells of the Permian Basin of West Texas.